I don't think I'm going out on a limb here and saying that Hillary is the presumptive nominee for the Democrats. (This is assuming she isn't indicted or drops out for health reasons.)
I've been thinking about her VP choice. Julian Castro is the name I hear most often as the front runner. This makes a certain amount of sense. He's young, he's from Texas and he's Latino.
But does she really need the Latino vote as much as other segments?
She has very high negatives and those aren't really moveable. She's been around for 30 years and people have pretty much made up their mind about her for good or for ill. I think she has the most chance of swaying women but they don't like her. Especially young women.
Suppose the answer to that is to pick a woman for VP? I think that's a strong possibility. The obvious choice there is Warren but those two are known for not liking each other. Can they figure something out that would be a deal? Clinton may offer a single term and backing for Warren's run in 2020. I suspect Hillary's health is a problem that is much more serious than she lets on.
For the record I don't see how she gets indicted for either her influence peddling nor for her mishandling of classified material. She's too politically powerful and has too much money and influence. I wish that didn't matter and I wish I could honestly say that we are a nation of laws but that just isn't true anymore. There are too many examples to list but people, especially in government, are immune to prosecution irrespective of their crimes.
My prediction: Julian Castro (yeah, I know, brave prediction Duffy).
The why is simply that she's a creature of The Establishment and they follow the long laid down rules and that's the likely pick.
Outside chances: Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Christie Todd Whitman (this would be the desperation pick)Posted by Duffy at May 16, 2016 01:27 PM | TrackBack