November 03, 2010

Election Post-Mortem

WINNERS:
* Sensible anti-Obama candidates. The vast majority of the GOP House winners were common sense conservatives who took advantage of the disaffection with Obama's policies. Bigger gains than 1994 is highly significant.

* The public. They were pissed off and they stopped one-party government.

LOSERS:
* Obama's policies, by and large. The public was ignored by the administration regarding many of its biggest initiatives and the public sent a strong message.

* The state of California. The most populous state in the Union voted to keep Barbara Boxer in the Senate and rehash "Moonbeam" Jerry Brown as its governor? The state is in dire straits, and they turn aside very politically attractive candidates Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman? They deserve whatever comes their way.

MIXED:
* The Tea Party. Its candidates were most significantly represented in some key Senate match-ups across the country. The biggest success by far was Marco Rubio in Florida. The biggest loser was Sharron Angle in Nevada, allowing the risible Harry Reid to remain in the Senate. And it appears that Sarah Palin's US Senate pick in Alaska, Jim Miller, is going to lose to former GOPer-turned write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski.

What happened?

If Delaware's own Christine O'Donnell's candidacy is any indicator, Nevadans and Alaskans suffered a similar fate with Angle and Miller (albeit to a much lesser extent). As I've noted here at Colossus numerous times over the last couple months, O'Donnell was an awful candidate. Being a native Delawarean all my life allowed me to have a more intimate knowledge of the minutiae surrounding O'D's campaign than a casual observer somewhere else. So, if Angle's and Miller's campaigns were in any way similar -- and they were in some respects (the locals would certainly know better than I) -- that would account for their losses. Clearly, if [Tea Party] Delaware and Nevada had chosen better, they would have fared better.

The idea behind the Tea Party remains a good one, certainly, but its disciples have to recognize that, although America is a right-center nation, "center" is part of that description! O'Donnell, Angle and (perhaps) Miller were judged more "right" than "center," whereas Marco Rubio was not. Here in Delaware, I understand the desire to replace Mike Castle (as Christine O'Donnell did) but one has to remember the old "battle vs. war" adage. Trashing virtual sure things so that your state becomes bluer than blue is not a winning strategy.

Lastly, how'd I do with my pre-election predictions? I had said:

House: GOP +53 -- looks like I underestimated by roughly ten!
Senate: GOP +8 -- looks as if I'll be 2-3 seats short there.
Upset: Murkowski wins in AK -- currently looks as if this will hold true.

Highest Ranking Loser: Harry Reid -- oops. Ugh.

Posted by Hube at November 3, 2010 03:41 PM | TrackBack

Comments  (We reserve the right to edit and/or delete any comments. If your comment is blocked or won't post, e-mail us and we'll post it for you.)

Delaware, er, New Castle county proved that 'they' are a suburb of philadelphia with this election...Not only did they prevent the tea party from success, the Republicans at the state level lost two seats in the house, thus preventing the republicans in the house from being able to block tax bills....Delawareans, thanks to new castle county, went real blue, and will be bluer when markell puts forth tax increases....way to not get the message delaware!

Posted by: cardinals fan at November 3, 2010 04:51 PM

Onorato reeling from 'unique' loss to Corbett in home county
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ^ | November 3, 2010 | Timothy McNulty

After a more than a year of nonstop campaigning, fundraising and crisscrossing state travel, Dan Onorato can console himself that he was just one of many Democrats swept under in a national Republican wave year. It is what happened at home that must concern him.

The Allegheny County executive lost his home county in the governor's race to Republican Tom Corbett, an indignity in a county where his party has 2.3 times as many votes. That has to be on his mind -- and those of possible GOP or Democratic rivals -- as he considers running for an unprecedented third term as county executive next year.

Mr. Corbett beat the Democrat by 649 votes in Allegheny County, the first time a GOP gubernatorial candidate had taken Pittsburgh's home county since Tom Ridge won re-election over Squirrel Hill's Ivan Itkin in 1998. In an open contest like this year, a Republican had apparently not won since the city's Democratic ascendancy began in the 1930s.

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hmmm sounds like the inverse of Delaware where a County Exec pummeled O'Donell

Posted by: anonni at November 4, 2010 09:41 AM

It's NCC's fault? That's laughable. It's Sussex County's fault for forcing an unelectable nut job into the general election in a state with 110,000 more democrats than republicans.

If Sussex doesn't start getting smarter and more tactical, the GOP will keep losing statewide.

Posted by: anon at November 8, 2010 10:30 AM