June 15, 2009

2012 prediction

Via Mike Potemra at The Corner:

Four years from now, Mitt Romney will be president of the United States.

My reasoning is as follows. Point One: The Obama team, while still basking in honeymoon-level approval ratings today, has pointed itself in a direction that will result in disappointed hopes for the American people. They have drastically overpromised, and their policies—even if they are not outright disastrous—will end up inciting more passionate discontent than passionate support. Point Two: The Republicans always nominate for president the candidate who’s next in line, even if that person is deeply unpopular (e.g., the GOP base’s hatred for John McCain did not prevent him from being nominated; he was the guy who lost to Bush in 2000, ergo…). In 2008, the runner-up was Romney. Add to that frontrunner status the fact that Romney has credibility on economics and budgeting, and he’s the prohibitive favorite. Add Point One to Point Two, and the result is a Romney presidency.

A preemptive rejoinder, lest anyone dismiss this prediction as Romney propaganda: I supported McCain over Romney in 2008, and am nowhere near deciding whom to support in 2012.

At this point, I find it hard to argue with.

Posted by Hube at June 15, 2009 02:41 PM | TrackBack

Comments  (We reserve the right to edit and/or delete any comments. If your comment is blocked or won't post, e-mail us and we'll post it for you.)


"Romney has credibility on economics and budgeting, and he’s the prohibitive favorite."

If you actually look at Romney's reforms, especially on Massachusetts Health Care, they didn't work at all and ran over budget by a huge amount. But if you assume voters will stick to one line resume descriptions, then yes he has me.

Secondly, Romney isn't a conservative. Nor is he a libertarian. He's another semi-socialist moderate like McCain, only taller and better looking. That is already looking extremely passe and I expect it to get worse as Obama's policies continue to tank.

Posted by: Jeff the Baptist at June 15, 2009 03:57 PM

the smartest conservative is still out there under our noses...if he can overcome the personal transgressions that have plagued him (like clinton did) than we can finally have a man of ideas as our leader...the newter!

Posted by: cardinals fan at June 15, 2009 04:44 PM

From the little I've read from Romney since the election, I expect that he will be a good candidate. His health care plan for Massachusetts is a major point against him. Still if he can credibly say that he learned from his mistake, he could turn that to his advantage.

And perhaps he might have a thing or two to say about the auto industry too. Right now, I see him as the most likely Republican nominee. I still see him coming in second in the general election.

Posted by: soccer dad at June 15, 2009 05:25 PM